Have we stepped into a retail time machine? - Part 2

Everything is playing into Amazons hands right now surely, we’re pressing the accelerator button and stepping out of our time machine to a place where Amazon are the only game in town?

I think the answer is, as in most cases, somewhere between yes and no.With so much power in the hands of the major publishers they have a vested interest in maintaining a retail equilibrium over the mid term. One imagines they will be as supportive as they can be of the high street, particularly Waterstones, almost mirroring the governments role of wider systemic support. There will undoubtedly be some bloodletting in the Independent sector but to a large degree we have been here before. Independents were supposed to be dying out many years ago, but after notable volume declines the numbers have grown steadily, hand in hand with the quality of the retailing on show. Those bookshops that have survived the surging online competition have embraced their role as social hubs for the local community, with events and experienced recommendation at the heart of what they do delivering value like never before. The independent bookshop of 2020 is already an evolved animal that understands its point of difference in the retail food chain. It had to be to survive pre-covid challenges. It’s also worth acknowledging the power that sentiment will play over the coming months as life begins to return to something approaching what we used to know. Nostalgia will come to the fore. People, you sense, will look after people. Community and being physically present will have a nuanced charm that might have been seen as unprogressive as little as a month ago. In a world where time and one click efficiency was the number one priority an afternoon whiling away a few minutes in a physical bookstore has taken on a sharpened romanticism of ‘if only we could’.

WHS, I think, are at the most interesting juncture of a long history. The jewel in the crown - the travel estate - a retail monopoly that was clearly the focus and future of the business is undoubtedly going to be hard hit. Short term travel numbers are non existent but that for me is the tip of the iceberg. Post lockdown businesses will have an army of employees eminently more comfortable with remote communication platforms reducing business travel. The environmental benefits we’ll see globally from the reduction in transportation, driving us closer to previously only dreamt of greenhouse goals will get guaranteed column inches if not headlines. Combined with the positive political sentiment that will engender it’s tough to argue this sector will bounce back to anything like the same levels of footfall. Conversely the high street arm - once proudly able to boast a presence in every UK high street - has been carrying the rump of its store base for a long time. Consistently delivering high returns and low sales volume from most stores outside the top hundred it has struggled to effect significant change, stymied as a publicly traded company where profit and share price is king. Does this enforced pause in the status quo, combined with a huge reduction in profit expectation perversely lift the city shackles and allow the business to make some radical moves?

We’ve also had a glimpse of what happens when the total catalogue of published titles are unavailable to the consumer almost overnight. The initial publishing thought process was that Amazon would fulfil their total range of titles as ‘the everything’ store, but for partially understandable reasons they’ve become the ‘priority’ store with many titles buy buttons removed as they manage demand across the vast portfolio of products they stock. With supermarkets the only other bonafide route to market, typically stocking a select range of the bestselling titles (albeit selling at approaching Christmas levels) the customer has less choice than ever before when demand is understandably high. The TCM data in recent weeks shows the market line count reduced by 20% whereas volume is down by 4% suggesting the big books are becoming bigger again. Over the best part of a decade every retailer, even range retailers like Waterstones, have been asking publishers to publish fewer titles better. Do these market figures suggest that a reduction in titles really serves to polarise the consumer into the titles available? Without the routes to market to publish their front list effectively beleaguered PR and Marketing teams will have fresh impetus to support evergreen titles, able to step off the relentless treadmill of new and focus on a a limited selection of relevant backlist that is undeniably profitable business. Colouring books, pronounced dead by the trade, were simply in hibernation and are this years golden ticket again. This experience could challenge the industry once more to look at its addiction to new in a fresh light. Could we publish fewer, focus more and deliver broadly the same consumer choice, whilst reducing our environmental footprint at the same time? It’s widely accepted that front list is often not where the profits are made and it also serves as a timely reminder that a book that has not been read by someone before remains to all intents and purposes new to them.

So have we stepped into a retail time machine? Of course this is an extreme scenario and for that reason its difficult to draw robust conclusions but we are seeing something of the future here. It’s clear there are learnings to be had as the industry tiptoes from one week to the next unsure what lies behind tomorrows door. Amazons true actions here, where little competition exists, will give us an honest picture of the retailer we’ll be dealing with as their influence grows over the coming decade. Businesses that adapt, streamline themselves and recognise consumer needs and sentiment will recover quickest. Some established and longstanding businesses will need to step into their own time machine and at least partially execute what were tomorrows plans today. One things for sure both threat and opportunity will be waiting on the other side of this pandemic in equal measure.